Vicofa: Crop year 2013/14 forecast
12/11/2013 16:30
According to Conab, the crop 2013/14 of Brazil will be harvested in the end of May estimated 48.6 million bag, down in comparison last estimation of 50,2 million bags. The reason is that the main grown coffee Minas Gerais was affected by the dry weather happened in the beginning this year. The Arabica price decreased due to the growers did not want to invest affecting to next crop.
According to Reuters, among exporting countries, Indonesia has low production but its demand for domestic consumption is high accounting for a third of production, about 4,57 million bags (60kgs) and accounting for 3% of world consumption.

In India, the third largest producer of Asia, the production will down the first time since crop 2007/08 due to the dry weather happening will affect tothe bloom and fruition process.

India’s crop begins in October 1st. The production will decrease compare to the record 315,500 tons of last crop due to some coffee areas lacked rain during bloom and fruition time.

The world consumption is 139 million bags, increasing 4.7% compare to 2008. The demand in 2013/14 is estimated up, especially in the emerging markets and exporting countries.

Total stock level of exporting countries is 15,1 million bags, down 17.1% in comparison with the same period last crop. The stock on Liffe slightly decreases but the demand of Robusta is increasing.

In Vietnam, according to the the reports of Departments of Agriculture and Rural Development in Tay Nguyen, upto now 40,000 ha coffee is seriously affected by the drought. The other areas are also short of water. Because of the drought and the high humidity, the many farms are damaged by Pseudocous sp and hemileia vastatrix so this will affect to the production down about 25% in crop 2013/14.

According to report of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), the Vietnam export volume will decrease next moths due to the stock and the trading are low. The export of 4/2013 was down 29.9% at 110,000 tons, the export volume of May is estimated 100.000 tons, down 46% in comparison with May 2012 which brought the export volume in May of 697,000 tons with 1.49 billion USD, down 23% in term of volume and nearly 22% in term of value in comparison with the same period last year. The stock is not much due to growers has sold all when the price was at 43million/ton.

Low stock, increasing consumption, bad changeable weather, make the production in many countries decrease in comparison with last estimation so it will affect to the market price in the coming months.
Source: Vicofa

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